Concept art from the Air Force Research Lab (AFRL)
The history of warfare has witnessed a remarkable transformation, evolving from the use of rudimentary weapons like swords and spears, progressing to guns and tanks, and now employing advanced technology in the form of long-range missiles and aerial drones. The aim has been to minimize the loss of manpower and the need to lessen the human factor from the warfare synopsis. Seen in this light lethal algorithms and autonomous weapon systems are the next step in the evolution of warfare.
In the current global landscape, the greatest obstacle for militaries isn't a lack of technological advancements, but rather the overwhelming expenses associated with them. State-of-the-art submarines carry price tags in the billions, while aircraft carriers cost ten times more. Additionally, the newest tanks, equipped with advanced armor and aiming systems, along with fifth-generation aircraft, each cost more than 100 million dollars. These soaring prices render the prospect of maintaining a military force comparable to that of the World War II era practically unfeasible. However, autonomous drones regardless of their size are much cheaper allowing militaries to operate much larger fleets.
An additional factor driving the adoption of lethal autonomous weapons is that any military force that opts not to do so is at a major disadvantage. In the future you will need autonomous systems, to fight autonomous systems. The simple reason is that humans are increasingly outpaced by the speed and efficiency of these machines.
The world's leading military powers are now racing to develop robotic weapon systems that can operate autonomously. Such weapons offer numerous advantages, and nations that adopt an autonomous robotic doctrine early on will likely gain substantial military advantages, at least initially. However, as autonomous and robotic warfare become mainstream the drawbacks and counters to this technology will likely level the playing field. It wont happen this year or the next, but in the not-so-distant future, we are likely to see fully autonomous drones dominating the skies.
War may not be an inherent part of human nature, it certainly is a habit, one that has been perpetuated and refined throughout history. Given that technology typically advances much faster than policy and governance, it is essential to start thinking seriously about the implications of autonomous weapons. The decisions we make today will shape the battlefield of tomorrow and, with it, the fate of human lives.
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